On Monday the Guardian became the latest major institution to serve Canada its own ass on a platter. “This thuggish petro-state is today the only obstacle to a deal in Copenhagen,” writes George Monbiot.
So here I am, watching the astonishing spectacle of a beautiful, cultured nation turning itself into a corrupt petro-state. Canada is slipping down the development ladder, retreating from a complex, diverse economy towards dependence on a single primary resource, which happens to be the dirtiest commodity known to man. The price of this transition is the brutalisation of the country, and a government campaign against multilateralism as savage as any waged by George Bush.
Until now I believed that the nation that has done most to sabotage a new climate change agreement was the United States. I was wrong. The real villain is Canada. Unless we can stop it, the harm done by Canada in December 2009 will outweigh a century of good works.
Yowza. This is overstating the case, but sadly, only a little. Mr. Harper is not the only world leader in the Let’s-Do-Nothing Club, but his list of allies grows thin. Now that even China and India have committed to reducing carbon emissions (if you call intensity-based targets “reducing carbon emissions,” which Mr. Harper does), Canada is the last country of any global consequence still refusing to play ball. Mr. Harper’s long-term emissions target for 2050 is a big fat question mark.
Until last year, the world could pretend that Mr. Harper was just providing cover for George Bush, but with Barack Obama in the White House, it’s pretty clear that the prime minister is doing this on his own initiative. The world’s last neo-conservative government is setting fire to a few bridges on the way out. And yes, obviously the Alberta oil sands have everything to do with it.
The Canadian public and the media have done their best to ignore this problem. For the most part, this issue was barely on the radar until people like Ban Ki-Moon started dissing Canada in public. The Globe and Mail noticed last Friday, but still buried Moon’s comments in the third paragraph.
That’s still a whole hell of a lot better than the National Post, which — for reasons I can only imagine have to do with prior proprietary relationships — decided that a convicted fraudster with no credentials in science is the proper person to define the newspaper’s take on the whole issue. Here is Conrad Black uttering one falsehood per sentence about climate change:
The basic relevant facts are that carbon emissions are not the principal factor in global warming, and despite dire contrary forecasts and ever-increasing carbon-emissions in the world — especially as the economies of China and India, representing 40% of the world’s population, expand by six to 10 percent each year — the world has not grown a millidegree warmer since the start of this millennium. And its mean temperature rose by only one centigrade degree in the 25 years before that. The greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide emissions does have a gentle warming effect if it is not counteracted by unpredictable natural phenomena, but cannot be measured directly against the volume of such emissions.
I love that expression — “a gentle warming effect.” What, exactly, is gentle about coastal flooding and the desertification of southern Europe? Whatever; fortunately, most Canadians are not buying Black’s take on climate change, in much the same way they’re not buying the newspaper he launched a decade ago. About two-thirds of Canadians want Canada to lead global efforts to fight climate change, not lag in them. But for Mr. Harper, it’s all about making excuses for a currently lucrative industry that has no long-term prospects. My bet is the world will have moved on from Alberta oil long before the Alberta oil has been exhausted.
Which is sad, because it’s exactly this economic angle that Mr. Harper is missing. Kind of pathetic for an economist, if you ask me.
Let’s say for a moment that Conrad Black is right, and climate change is a massive lie foisted on the world’s public. (Incidentally, to believe this, you would have to believe in the largest, most improbable conspiracy theory ever concocted, which is that two or three generations of scientists from all corners of the globe came together in a plot to defraud the public by infiltrating all the major peer-reviewed journals on earth and publishing falsehoods, while at the same time suppressing any publication of basic data that would disprove the fraud. But anyway.) Let’s just say climate change isn’t happening. You know what? Signing on to a climate change deal is still a good idea.
Because here’s the reality of our situation. We are running out of fossil fuels. This is a mathematical certainty. The demand for fossil fuels is growing, and the finite supply is shrinking. The analysts can debate all they want whether peak oil will be in ten years, or five years, or whether it happened last year. It doesn’t matter. What does matter is that if we want to maintain anything even remotely resembling our modern standard of living, we need to find viable alternatives to carbon-burning fuels.
And right now the only tools we have to initiate any sort of global effort to replace fossil fuels are climate deals like Kyoto and whatever comes out of Copenhagen, if anything. They create an impetus to search for alternative energy sources. And whether or not we put any effort into it won’t change the fact that a few generations from now, we will be using alternative energy sources, because fossil fuels will have run out. The only question is, which countries will lead the effort, and reap the profits when the time comes to switch technologies, and which countries will face a net loss by having to buy those technologies from other countries.
It simply doesn’t make sense for Mr. Harper to protect the Alberta oil sands at the price of Canada’s long-term economic health. But then, what sense have any of Mr. Harper’s policies had, thus far? It’s all been ideologically-driven nonsense, and most Canadians aren’t expecting any different when it comes to the environment.
The one saving grace that Mr. Harper has is that, ultimately, he’s a coward who doesn’t think for himself. (This is why he first declared he wasn’t going to Copenhagen, and then promptly changed his mind when Obama announced he plans to go, and then even had the gall to get his lackeys to claim he “always” planned to go.) This is a saving grace because, now that Harper is isolated on the world stage and looking increasingly like the dinosaur that he is, he’s likely to bend to public opinion. When even your conservative allies like Sarkozy and Berlusconi won’t back you up, you better have big cojones to tell the world go screw itself. And Mr. Harper’s cojones just aren’t that big.
So he is going to have to come up with something. My bet is we will see yet another turnaround from Mr. Harper, some sort of sudden “announcement” of a change in Canadian policy either before or after Copenhagen. It will likely be a snow job, but if it actually involves something concrete, like a carbon tax or cap-and-trade or even tougher emissions targets, Mr. Harper might inadvertently do some long-term good for Canada’s economy, and prevent it from becoming the petro-state that it’s morphing into. With any luck, Mr. Harper might show some of those “leadership qualities” everybody’s trying to convince me he actually has.